Newsletter -October 1998Old man winter is back from vacation Believe it or not, we have been ex-periencing the early effects of 'El Viejo', the old man, better known as La Niņa, since July. In a matter of a few weeks during the late spring and early summer, there was a very rapid cooling of Pacific Ocean waters in a narrow band along the Equator, centered on about 135 west longitude. This event triggered the change from the El Niņo weather patterns we have experienced over the past 12 to 18 months, to those of La Niņa. We can now expect a stormy return of old man winter, who took a vacation from Ontario last winter. La Niņa is the cold counterpart of El Niņo that appears about every four to five years. This occurs where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific fall below normal. The event is characterized by warm winters in the southeastern United States, colder-than-normal winters from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, and unsettled winters in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Across North America and in Europe the mild winters of El Niņo will give way to more severe cold and snowy conditions. Canadian air temperature (especially west of Quebec) is expected to be below normal, while the precipitation in southern Canada is expected to be above normal. This suggests that a great deal of snowfall is in store for the Greater Toronto Area. The Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (CICS) predicts that after an unusually warm summer in much of Canada, there will be a turn to colder than normal conditions in western Canada. The Prairies and the Interior of BC will experience below normal temperatures this winter. The BC Coast is predicted to experience near normal temperatures this fall and slightly below normal temperatures during the winter. The magnitude of the 1997-1998 El Niņo may give us some additional insight into the profile of the weather conditions in store for us over the next few months. Theory is that strong La Niņas follow strong El Niņos! The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the 1997-1998 El Niņo ranks as one of the major climatic events of this Century. The World Meteorological Organization says the same El Niņo was the strongest this Century. It was a major factor in 1997's record high temperatures. According to the NOAA, January through August 1998 has set new all-time record global land and ocean surface temperatures. They are far above both last year's record high levels and all other years. This year's anomaly of 1.3°F above the long-term mean (1880-1997) is more than 1.5 times larger than any previous year. The estimated average surface temperature for land and sea worldwide was 0.8°F higher than the 1961-1990 average of 61.7°F. Earlier this year, the NOAA suggested that it is quite possible that during July, the warmest monthly temperatures ever observed on Earth in the past 600 years would be recorded. Surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are currently about 5°C above normal, the highest observed in the last 50 years. These warm waters occupy an area of about 14 million square km about 1 1/2 times the size of Canada. Sea surface temperatures off Canada's Pacific Coast are averagng about 2 to 3°C above normal. In some areas of Indonesia, severe drought occurred due to the early arrival of the dry summer season. This contributed to the extreme forest fires that blanketed South East Asia in smoke and haze. In central Chile, severe storms occurred in June, July and August, with rainfall totaling 10 times the normal amount for an entire year. Santiago, the capital, received more than a year's worth of rain (300 mm) in June. The worst drought in 50 years was recorded for Papua New Guinea, and crop and livestock losses from dry weather exceeded $130 million in New Zealand. Sweltering summer heat occurred in areas of Asia from the Indian subcontinent to China, including the most severe heat wave this century. And, in Pakistan and northwestern India, unpredictable monsoons struck with spotty rain in some areas and torrential rain in others. So what exactly can we expect in Ontario for the next half year or so from the La Niņa anomaly? Who can really say? If all these predictions and historical weather patterns hold true, this winter will require warm coats and light snow shovels. Grant Lee |